The electoral maps at left show what Romney will have to do to win in November. The first map shows what Romney’s electoral count will be if he can maintain his current 5-point lead over Obama, and it’s a narrow victory.
The second map shows how McCain fared in 2008. In the electoral vote count McCain didn’t even come close. That’s because he lost Florida, North Caroline, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Colorado.
Romney must win all of those states except Pennsylvania to squeak out a narrow victory. Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida are key states. Romney needs to carry two of them or he cannot get the necessary electoral count to win. In addition, he will also need North Carolina, Indiana, and Colorado. He can lose one of those states only if he carries all three of the key states.
The fact that a 5-point lead in the popular vote translates into only a narrow victory in the electoral college is the result of states with large populations, New York and California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, being solid blue with no chance for Romney, nor any Republican, to carry them in a presidential election.
Madison is a lost cause as the possibly the most whack-job liberal spot in the nation but the remainder of Wisconsin has become decidedly more conservative and could possibly give Romney its 11 electoral votes. Wisconsin voted in an all Republican state government in 2010. That would make a little easier for him, at least it would allow him to lose Colorado’s 9 electoral votes. Wisconsin going red would make for terrific theater. Wisconsin’s liberals are notorious sore losers and would probably go on a hooligan rant of looting and burning for Romney’s entire term.