UPDATE TUESDAY: Today Gallup says its 48% Romney, 43% Obama.
Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Romney up over Obama 47-45. Gallup polls registered voters. Rasmussen polls likely voters and has Romney over Obama 47-44. Polls of likely voters have shown to be more predictive of the results on election day.
Polls this far in advance of the election are probably not worth much.
April 20-22, 1992, President George H.W. Bush was ahead of Clinton 41-26, with 25% for Ross Perot.
April 11-14, 1980, President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42-34, with John Anderson at 18%.
Gallup cites those polls as evidence that polls this early don’t mean much. However, those polls showed the incumbent president leading the challenger, who ultimately won on election day. The current polls are the reverse, with the incumbent president the one who is behind the challenger. Whether or what that means is…who knows? It may or may not be good news for getting rid of Obama, but it’s sure not good new for Obama.