Intrade prediction market nows gives Obama less than a 50% chance of being reelected in 2012. As of 10:40 A.M. EST:

Some are predicting that Obama will start a war, or several wars, in an effort to boost his election chances. Wag the dog? That could backfire.

Glenn Reynolds said THEY TOLD ME IF I VOTED FOR JOHN MCCAIN WE’D SEE ENDLESS WAR. AND THEY WERE RIGHT!