So says Byron York at the Washington Examiner.
York has talked to some major pollsters and looked deep inside the polls, finding big trouble for Obama in 2012 if he isn’t able to turn things around. Obama has lost too much support from all key groups that elected him in 2008. Well, not all. Those with graduate degrees have actually increased their support for Obama buy a percentage point. The best explanation for that is summed up by paraphrasing a famous quote of George Orwell. There are some ideas so wrong that only a person with a graduate degree could believe in them. Those with graduate degrees will never support a Ronald Reagan, for instance, because most of them would be perfectly satisfied to be ruled by “a little intellectual elite in Washington.” An Obama is and always will be just fine for the majority of that crowd.
Among all other groups that he owned outright in 2008, Obama has lost serious ground. That includes independents, women, Hispanics, whites in general, etc. Even younger voters are abandoning Obama. While 89% of Blacks still support him, that number is down from 95% in 2008. It may not seems like much of a drop but is more serious than it looks. If Black support for Democrats in general ever falls below 80%, Democrats would have a hard time ever winning another election because the heavy majority they have enjoyed among Black voters has meant that Republicans cannot ever win with a simple majority of the non-Black vote in general. With their supermajority of the Black vote Democrats can come out on top with about 48% of the non-Black vote, which is the upper limit they typically get, while Republicans need about 52%.
Bill Clinton was repudiated in 1992 but turned it around to easily win a second term in 1996. That occurred as a result for two factors. First, Clinton moved from the far left to the center and voters approved. Second, the Republicans fielded a weak candidate. Obama will need both of those things to happen again. He can only control the first one, and he’s not likely to give up his desire to change America with far left wing policies. It’s simply not in him to back off from it. He believes the troubles of 2010 were a messaging problem. He won’t ever accept the reality that it was about policy and substance. The voters got the message loud and clear. They just didn’t like it.
Obama can be more hopeful about the second factor. Waiting for Republicans to screw up is usually not a long wait. But even that may not be enough.