UPDATE 11/7/2012: Disaster affirmed. We’re doomed, and so are those who voted for it. They just don’t know it yet. Those people have spoken and told us what they want. Obama will give it to them. Good and hard.
UPDATE 3/9/2012: A lot has changed since this was first posted. An Obama victory in 2012 would be a disaster, more so than I thought a year ago. The likely potential of several Obama Supreme Court appointments and the Republicans’ lack of will to oppose them, should they control the Senate, is a huge concern. But it appears now that one of what I called the “McCellan’s” is the only hope the GOP has for 2012, and that will still be the GOP disaster I predicted a year ago. The Tea Party is still strong albeit behind the scenes doing its grassroots organizing. The GOP is dominated by tired and weak old men with no vision for the future, making the Tea Party the only hope for continuation of a conservative movement in U.S. politics.
The way to think about an Obama reelection in 2012 is to think about a McCain victory in 2008. Had McCain won in 2008 where would conservatives be now? “On the ropes” is the only answer that makes any sense given what is known of McCain’s history and his personal traits. It’s unimaginable that there would be the sort of conservative ascendancy that has occurred in the last 2 years if McCain had defeated Obama in 2008. Obama has done for the conservative movement what McCain could never have done, nor had any desire to do, and that is to revive the conservative movement and inspire The Tea Party which has moved big numbers of “precious” independents away from the Democrat party to the Republican party. I call independents “precious” because both parties think they are the key to electoral success.
The Republican field of likely presidential candidates for 2012 doesn’t look all that good unless you consider some that are probably not well positioned for 2012, but will be by 2016. For 2012 it is Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich or Mike Huckaby. All of those would be a disaster for conservatives and for the Republican party because they are tentative conservatives and would be too easy for Democrats and the media to demonize. They’d start apologizing as soon as they were attacked on the most frivolous grounds, or like Daniels, give up on conservative principles. They are in the George B. McClellan branch of the Party. In the Ulysses S. Grant branch of the party are the young bloods; they are Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Michelle Bachmann, Sarah Palin, and possibly Mr. “Roadmap for America” Paul Ryan, although he has already ruled himself out for 2012. Texas Governor Rick Perry fits here as well.
The Grants are the ones that can reposition the Republican party to attract conservatives and independents and make it a winning majority, and become the party of good governance. While the McClellans dither, snivel and apologize for being just a teeny-weeny bit conservative, the Grants fight for conservative ideas and proudly proclaim their allegiance to conservative principles. The McClellan branch are losers and will take down conservatives and Republicans with them. But if a Republican is to defeat Obama in 2012 it will likely to one from the McClellan branch. If one of them can beat Obama it won’t be because he is such a good candidate. It will be solely because Obama is such an awful candidate. The Grants have the potential to be great candidates, but perhaps not yet. Perhaps not by 2012. Surely by 2016, though.
A 2012 outcome that has Obama getting a second term but Republicans in control of both houses of Congress would not be a bad result. The Grants will be there doing good by holding the namby-pamby, scaredy-cat, tired and old McClellan slow-boys’ feet to the fire. Obama’s continued presence will keep the Tea Party rolling along as well. The fight to get rid of Obamacare will intensify and Obama and the Democrats will have to defend it as it becomes increasingly unpopular. All in all, 2016 will be a great year for conservatives and Republicans by heading off a possible McClellan win in 2012 and the sort of sorry-assed, one-term Republican presidency any of them are good for only to be followed by another big across-the-board Democrat victory in 2016 when the voters are once again fatigued by Republican moderates, RINOS and losers.
I find support for this thesis from Noemie Emery, one of my favorite columnists.