From The Hill, as of Noon Eastern today:

All Republicans firm No.

35 Democrats firm no, leaning no, or likely no (includes 8 who voted yes the first time).

2 Democrats firm yes.

4 Democrats leaning yes.

72 Democrats undecided (includes 9 who voted no the first time).

I assume all the rest of the Democrats are an extra firm yes. I don’t know why The Hill counts only 2 Democrats as firm yes but it might be that the others simply refused to say anything at all. I would take that to mean firm yes. So change the firm yes above from 2 to “all other Democrats.”

The Hill does not have Dennis Kucinich in the no column and he has announced publicly that he is a firm no (Obamacare is not socialist enough for him). That would raise the no’s to 36. The most Pelosi can lose and still pass the bill (by the unconstitutional Slaughter rule) is 37. If the Democrat no’s reach 38 it does not pass (assuming no Republican defections).

Besty Markey of Colorado is counted as undecided and she was a “late” no the first time. Being late means she was really in favor but waited to be sure it would pass before casting her “no” vote. That enabled her to have it both ways, the bill passed but she can tell her constituents she voted against it. She shouldn’t be allowed to get away with that this time and needs to hear from her constituents. Tell her you will send money to her Republican opponent in November if the bill passes no matter how she votes because you know she’s trying to straddle the vote.

On Kucinich, it might be the The Hill is not counting him as a no even though he has said he will vote no is that they know he is a flake and will vote yes when school marme Pelosi pinches his ear.